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The geometric distribution is similar to the binomial distribution in that both are concerned with repeated experiments with only two outcomes, in this case success or failure of a chase. When the number of chases is fixed, then the number of successes has a binomial distribution. When chases occur until the first success, then the number of unsuccessful chases has a geometric distribution. 99). Hence, a feral pig must stalk at least 17 lambs to be 99% assured of catching prey. 7. 1 Infectious diseases Problem definition Many wild vertebrates are known or suspected to be infected with diseases of humans or livestock.

Wood & Liau (1984) examined the stomach contents of Rattus tiomanicus in an oil palm plantation in Malaysia, which confirmed reported damage to palm oil fruit. If only a small proportion of rodents are doing the damage then a large sample size may be needed to detect confidently at least one positive result. The experimental method (number 4) compares yields or estimates of damage between sites with and without rodents or with and without rodent control. Advani & Mathur (1982) used the latter method in crops in Indian villages.

The experimental method can require extrapolating from the laboratory to the field situation. The limitations of modelling are described in Chapter 5. 4 Analysis The analysis of disease data obviously depends on the questions being asked. A few preliminary analyses which estimate incidence and prevalence are often performed. Incidence of disease is the number of new cases of disease over a defined time period. Prevalence of the disease is the percentage of hosts which are infected at a defined time.

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